As the U.S. continues to grapple with tariffs, imports at the nation’s major ports are expected to remain elevated through this spring but volume could see year-over-year drops this summer, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” says Jonathan Gold, VP for supply chain and customs policy. “The on-again, off-again tariffs against Canada and Mexico won’t have a direct impact on port volumes because most of those goods move by truck or rail. But new tariffs on goods from China that have already doubled from 10% to 20% are a concern, as well as uncertainty over ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that could start in April. Retailers have been working on supply chain diversification, but that doesn’t happen overnight. In the meantime, tariffs are taxes on imports ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, and American families will pay more as long as they are in place.”

President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from China in February, then increased the tariff to 20% last week. A 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico was announced in February, then delayed and put on hold for one month for goods compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade pact signed during Trump’s first administration.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett says imports from all trading partners could also be affected by a new fee between $1 million and $1.5 million for each time a Chinese-built ship docks at a U.S. port being considered by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

“Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet has been built in China, this means that there will be further costs that will be passed on to cargo owners and ultimately the consumer,” Hackett says. “Carriers will likely make more use of larger vessels and consolidate calls at major ports rather than making multiple stops at smaller ports. Ports accommodated the surge in import volume in the final quarter of 2024 without major issues, but this will place additional pressure on the supply chain while also harming the nation’s smaller ports.”

U.S. ports handled 2.22 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), or 20-foot containers, in January, up 4.4% from December and up 13.4% year over year. Ports have not yet reported February’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.07 million TEU, up 6.1% year over year. That would be the busiest February—traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China—in three years.

The first half of the year is expected to total 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7% year over year. Imports during 2024 totaled 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and the highest level since 2021’s record of 25.8 million TEU during the COVID-19 pandemic.